About Paimio Research
Paimio Research is an independent desk on Gulf real estate and construction, led by Emil Hartela. This site is the public index desk: two monthly Dubai residential price series, built from official Dubai Land Department sales, free to view and cite. They are not listing-price indexes, not broker averages, and not investment advice.
Two indexes, two questions
Institutions usually need both a same-stock return and a market level. Dubai publishes neither as a research-grade pair. We do. Last-print changes on this site are month-on-month. Base for both series is January 2010 = 100.
A true investor index — PAIMIO-DXB-RSI
The Paimio Dubai Matched Floorplate Index is the series to use when the question is capital appreciation on stock that actually traded twice. It is a monthly Bailey-Muth-Nourse index of deed-to-deed pairs. A floorplate is project, building, room band and procedure area. Hold at least six months. The published path is not smoothed.
That is as close as the public tape lets an independent desk get to a true investor index. Mix and quality stay inside the same tower and size band, so the print is a rough historical hold-period return — not the city average of whatever sold this month. It is not a title-deed match. Same-size units in one building can still collide. Repeat-transacting stock over-represents investors. Those limits are documented on the methodology page, not hidden in a footnote.
Credit, allocation and research teams use it to read investor-held stock against the broader tape, to put a number on multi-year drawdowns, and to keep a citable independent series next to in-house models.
The general price level — PAIMIO-DXB-HED
The Paimio Dubai Hedonic Index answers a different question: where is the residential market. It is a monthly chained adjacent-period hedonic on flats and villas. Size, off-plan, rooms, subtype, age band and community go into the regression. The print is the general price level after mix — new launches, cheap studios, ready family stock — not the return on a given floorplate.
The two series are co-published because they fail differently. When the tape tilts toward off-plan studios, the hedonic can hold while same-stock appreciation does not. When investor stock turns over, the floorplate series moves and the city average may not. Read them together.
This site
The public site is the quote desk. Last prints, charts, the print table, CSV and JSON live on the indexes pages. Method and pair rules are on methodology. Citation lines and permalinks are on how to cite. Machine IDs are PAIMIO-DXB-RSI and PAIMIO-DXB-HED. Source is always Dubai Land Department.
Sukuk, developers, and the rest of the desk
Indexes are the public product. The rest of Paimio Research is built for institutions that have to underwrite Gulf developers and paper, not just quote a city price.
For sukuk and credit desks we build sales-pace pulses on the live project book — trailing primary offtake versus a rolling 24-month sold-out absorption schedule — so outstanding Islamic paper can sit next to whether the issuer is still clearing inventory. That work started on listed and sukuk-issuing developers. It is not a collection tape and not a substitute for the offering circular.
For equity and credit research we run listed-developer monitors: DLD sales against published books, sell-through, completions, and leftover weeks on names that file on DFM, ADX, LSE and elsewhere. Sector products — revenue nowcasts and company monitors — sit on the institutional portal. Construction and handover books sit beside the sales tape so a nowcast is not only a price print.
None of that is on the public quote tape. The indexes stay free so a citation does not depend on a login. The portal is for desks that need the issuer-level work.
Who this is for
Allocators, credit and sukuk desks, sell-side and independent research, and in-house strategy teams that need an independent Dubai residential series they can put in a note. Cite the name, the machine ID, the as-of date and the permalink. Files: /data/indexes.csv and /data/indexes.json.